Trump 3rd Party Threat – Historical Evidence

From the Desert with feet planted firmly in the Cornfield
From the Desert with feet planted firmly in the Cornfield

Donald Trump is once more threatening to bolt from the Republican Party and run as a 3rd party candidate for the presidency in 2016.

But historically, how have such bids fared?

As you can see from the chart below, since 1832, no third party candidate has come close to grabbing the keys to the Oval Office. Historically, third party candidates have been spoilers, often give the White House to the party least associated and often in direct opposition to the major party which the candidate’s views are more aligned.

Such, if we are to believe history, will be the case with Trump should he embark on an independent run.

Currently he is running in the GOP primary/caucus system. Should he negate his pledge to support the Republican nominee, one can based on the statistical past, reasonably believe that the Democratic nominee, most likely Hillary Clinton, will be a shoo in come November, 2016.

See for yourself the historical evidence:

3rdpartyAs you can see only John Breckinridge in 1860 running against Republican Abraham Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 running against Republican Howard Taft, managed a second place showing. In all likelihood,

Trump would take away the best shot, historically, for the out-of-power party (Republicans) taking the reins from the current in-power party (Democrats) after two, straight terms in the President’s chair.

This would mean we would wake up the morning after Election Day to Madame President-Elect Clinton.

From the Cornfield, unless Trump wants to see Clinton win, his best bet is to stay with the GOP and support its nominee – even if that nominee is not Donald J. Trump.

 

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Mark

I am Mark Ivy, a born and bred Hoosier.
I am father to two wonderful sons, Dave and Kev, of whom I am very proud;
two terrific daughters-in-law, Anna and Hailey; three beautiful granddaughters, Dylan, Alaina and Amelia.

On May 9, 2017, my lung specialist hit me with the news I had maybe six months to live if the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the damage caused by the histoplasmosis described below, ran its normal course. I am now on hospice at home. Content and ready to cross over the river to the other side.

On September 2, 2014, I was diagnosed with disseminated histoplasmosis, a fungal infection, discovered by a biopsy of my larynx.
The infection is fatal if left untreated. For 2 1/2 years I lived under a death sentence being misdiagnosed
with a non-specific bacterial infection which left my right lung a “dried up sponge” and non-functioning.
I was aggressively treated for the infection with antifungals.
The treatment ended October of 2015 and fortunately did not take two years.

I suffer from chronic Horton’s Syndrome. The effects vary widely causing various problems.
Statistically, Horton’s affects only 0.1% of the population. Major depression also attacks me regularly.

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