Donald Trump is once more threatening to bolt from the Republican Party and run as a 3rd party candidate for the presidency in 2016.
But historically, how have such bids fared?
As you can see from the chart below, since 1832, no third party candidate has come close to grabbing the keys to the Oval Office. Historically, third party candidates have been spoilers, often give the White House to the party least associated and often in direct opposition to the major party which the candidate’s views are more aligned.
Such, if we are to believe history, will be the case with Trump should he embark on an independent run.
Currently he is running in the GOP primary/caucus system. Should he negate his pledge to support the Republican nominee, one can based on the statistical past, reasonably believe that the Democratic nominee, most likely Hillary Clinton, will be a shoo in come November, 2016.
See for yourself the historical evidence:
As you can see only John Breckinridge in 1860 running against Republican Abraham Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 running against Republican Howard Taft, managed a second place showing. In all likelihood,
Trump would take away the best shot, historically, for the out-of-power party (Republicans) taking the reins from the current in-power party (Democrats) after two, straight terms in the President’s chair.
This would mean we would wake up the morning after Election Day to Madame President-Elect Clinton.
From the Cornfield, unless Trump wants to see Clinton win, his best bet is to stay with the GOP and support its nominee – even if that nominee is not Donald J. Trump.